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EDB: Belarus’ economic growth will approach 4% in 2023

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ALMATY, 14 December (BelTA) – Belarus’ economy is expected to grow by nearly 4% in 2023, senior analyst at the Center for Country Analysis of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) Anton Dolgovechny said during the final press conference of the Eurasian Development Bank, BelTA has learned.

“Belarus successfully adapted to the new environment, which helped the domestic economy bounce back within a short period of time. The country’s economic growth will be nearly 4% in 2023. The expansion of industrial output fueled by the increasing demand from Russia became one of the key drivers of growth. The expansion of lending and government support also contributed to a marked increase in consumer and investment activity,” said Anton Dolgovechny.

The expert added that the GDP growth forecast for Belarus in 2024 was revised upward to 2%. “The economy will continue to grow at a pace exceeding the average growth rate for the last 10 years. An increasingly robust domestic demand coupled with expansionary fiscal and monetary policies will be the main drivers of growth. At the same time, the expected slowdown in demand in Russia and the high level of capacity utilization in industry will prevent the economy from growing at a faster pace,” he emphasized.

“The refinancing rate is projected to be about 9.5% in 2024. Amidst the growing inflation pressure, there are no grounds to believe that it will be revised downward. We expect the refinancing rate to remain within the 9-10% band over the entire forecast period,” the expert noted. “The exchange rate is expected to be around Br3.25 per $1 on average in 2024. The ruble is expected to be slightly weakened by the faster growth of imports compared to exports.

Chief Economist and Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank Evgeny Vinokurov commented on the macro-trends in the global economy. “The first macro-trend is increased inflation; we believe that there is no chance inflation targets will be met. The second trend is high key interest rates of central banks that help curb inflation, but significantly affect economic activity. The third one is a slowdown in economic activity in developed countries. Here the main question is whether the economies of developed countries will go into recession, albeit mild,” Evgeny Vinokurov noted.

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