Opinions & Interviews
Lukashenko: 2020 is the most challenging year in decades
MINSK, 7 December (BelTA) – Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko has convened a meeting to discuss the performance of the economy in 2020 and the draft forecast documents for 2021, BelTA has learned.
The government and the National Bank have submitted a package of forecast documents to the president. In order to get comprehensive views on them and to compare the proposed approaches with the heads of local authorities, a wide range of participants, including senior officials, deputies of the prime minister, ministers and governors, have been invited to the meeting.
“During this meeting we will not only sum up the preliminary results of the year but will also consider the forecast for the year. We will not be discussing the five-year plans today. This is the starting year in the five-year period and we will carefully consider it. As for the five-year period, perhaps, we will make some adjustments at the end of the year. In early January, we will return to the five-year plan, especially since we are going to review it at the Belarusian People's Congress," Aleksandr Lukashenko said.
The head of state noted that it is possible to look at the results of the economy this year in different ways. The industry fell behind last year's results, investments decreased, exports plunged by 15%.
“Today we need to take a wider look at the current situation and realize the extraordinary challenges we are facing and the problems we have been able to avoid. This is very important for future planning. The current government has faced one of the most difficult periods in decades. Sometimes the situation changed within days, not even weeks or months,” Aleksandr Lukashenko said.
At the same time, the president noted that the key task has been achieved, namely the financial stability in the banking sector and the foreign exchange market. "We did not run into any arrears and paid off all the debts. This was achieved in the context of the tight budgetary framework and the main shock of the year - coronavirus. We have done everything possible for this," the president stressed.
Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko said that the Belarusian economy has faced extremely difficult challenges this year. It was affected by several shocks: the pandemic, problems with oil imports and potash exports, declining global economy, a demand crisis, volatility in the domestic financial market, the pressures of devaluation expectations on the foreign exchange market, the exchange rate and the resource base of banks.
“As a result, GDP fell by 0.2% in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the fall accelerated to 3.1%. International organizations predicted further rapid decline of the Belarusian economy and, after the volatility on the financial market in August, the rapid collapse of the economy,” the prime minister noted.
According to the government's estimates, at the end of the year GDP will make up 99.1-99.2% of the GDP last year. Even with such result, Belarus will be able to maintain a leading position in terms of economic development not only among its neighbors, but also in Europe as a whole, Roman Golovchenko noted.
The sectors of agriculture, construction, communications and information and the financial sector posted positive results. The industry will come close to the level of last year (99.2%), and the backlogs of inventory will decrease by about Br800 million over 1 June of this year, the head of government added.
"The average salary in December will exceed Br1,034. The increase in real terms is about 7%. We are working to preserve the workforce in the face of the pandemic. As compared to May, when the situation was the worst, the underemployment decreased by 4.4 times, downtime - 2.3 times. At the same time, this is still higher than last year," the prime minister said.
The consumer price index is projected at 6.9%. Roman Golovchenko explained that the main reason for failing to meet the target (5%) is the devaluation of the ruble and hence the increase in prices. In foreign trade Belarus posted a surplus. Since May exports have been growing every month. The surplus at the end of the year is expected close to $1 billion.
“Amid the pandemic we managed to ensure the stable operation of enterprises, keep the education and healthcare systems stable, to fulfill the social obligations of the state in full (even exceed in some respects), to prevent the budget imbalance and the crisis in the financial market,” the head of government noted.
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