Opinions & Interviews

MINSK, 21 November (BelTA) – The draft social and economic development forecast for 2018 expects the domestic demand to recover. Prime Minister Andrei Kobyakov made the statement during the government conference held by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko on 21 November to hear out reports covering the national economy’s performance so far this year, evaluations of this year’s results, the draft social and economic development forecast, the draft budget, and the draft monetary management policy for 2018, BelTA has learned.

According to the head of government, the draft forecast expects the available resources to be used as much as possible. Domestic demand is expected to recover in a balanced manner. “Economic growth will be secured in equal measure by domestic demand and foreign demand. The key requirement is to grow it without putting some burden on the balance of payments in proportion to the contribution of external factors to economy growth,” said Andrei Kobyakov.

The draft social and economic development forecast relies on two scenarios. The first one is supposed to reach the economic growth trajectory as stipulated by the five-year program. The second one is conservative and is used to calculate the draft state budget. Andrei Kobyakov stated that the first scenario expects oil to cost $45.9 per barrel, the U.S. dollar to cost RUB60.5, with the Russian economy growth rate at 101.7% and the price for potash fertilizers at $205 per tonne.

In line with the draft social and economic development forecast, in 2018 Belarus’ GDP growth rate is expected to reach 103.4%, labor productivity growth rate — 102.8%, the export growth rate — 106%. The deficit of foreign merchandise trade is estimated at $33.4 million, with net foreign direct investments at $1.45 billion. “The real disposable income of the population will rise by 3.2%. We will keep the inflation index at 107% at most,” said Andrei Kobyakov.

The manufacturing sector, agriculture, civil engineering, trade, transport, informatization and communication will make the main contribution to the GDP growth.

The draft social and economic development forecast expects 3.5 million m2 of housing to be built in Belarus in 2018.